Now this post might not be for anyone who doesn’t enjoy betting from time to time, but if you enjoy betting on fights for fun or as a profession then you will love today’s post at the MMAGateway as we Give a breakdown of how UFC odds work.
Personally I have won and lost bets countless times on MMA fights, but over the past few years my betting average has become much more sound – typically on a fight card I will get most of the fight picks correct, especially when I have seen every fighter on a card fight multiple times before.
This past weekend for instance at UFC 242 I got every fight correct apart from Diego Ferreira vs. Mairbek Taisumov, where I think most MMA analysts were surprised at how good Ferreira looked and how poor Taisumov looked, Diego Ferreira really took over that fight and is coming into his best career form.
Then in the Zubaira Tukhugov vs. Lerone Murphy match where I back Lerone Murphy to win, while I was nearly proven correct the fight ended in a majority draw, which was a fair loss. Murphy which was a sentimental pick for me, showed he belongs at this level of fighting.
So around an 86% win ratio for that event was solid and generally anytime you are over 75% as a win average you know that your eye for betting on fights is seasoned and skilled.
The favourite is a favourite for a reason.
Now first off as a rule of thumb with UFC Odds and MMA Odds generally, you have to be aware that the favourite is a favourite for a reason. This could be for a number of reasons or a culmination of these reasons, but firstly it could be because overall skillset for skillset one fighter is just better then his or her opponent in all areas.
Or maybe one fighter has a glaring advantage over their opponent, having massively better striking or Wrestling for example. Occasionally injuries know of behind the scenes could factor into the odds, and of course how each fighters records match up against each other is a factor too.
Ultimately never forget with whatever stake you bet – the favourite is a favourite for a reason and thus should always be a first initial thought for a bet.
Always read between the lines.
Now regardless of what i said in the paragraph above, with UFC odds and all MMA odds you always have to be aware of the narrative going on within the fight, you must essentially read between the lines with every fight.
The most famous example of this for me, was Ronda Rousey vs Amanda Nunes. In the lead up to this fight, the promo videos were painting a picture of an avenging queen returning to reclaim her throne. There was an immense level of disrespect towards Amanda Nunes, like she was not even relevant in the fight which I saw at the time.
Then when I looked at the odds to see how heavy they were in Ronda’s favour, I knew for certain the oddsmakers had that priced completely wrong and any time you read between the lines you can do that. I knew Nunes had better, cleaner more technical striking, had the takedown/submission defence to avoid Rondas takedowns/submissions and hits hard enough to put Rondas lights out – so I went heavy on Nunes and that paid off hugely.
But when fighters are at the Jon Jones/Khabib Nurmagomedov level of dominance there is not much reading between the lines you can do so stick to the favourite in these kinds of fights.
Another great thing to read into with fights and Odds, is the fight going to the judges or getting stopped, especially if you are unsure about the actual winner – example would be a fighter who has won all his fights by KO but has no Wrestling or Jiu-Jitsu, fighting an opponent who has been knocked out a lot but has good wrestling and submissions, also they happen to not like eachother very much…then a stoppage is very likely.
But if two opponents have very similar skill sets that will nullify each other, both have a good chins, are durable, have good stamina and respect each other – then the fight going the judges is very likely.
Also keep your on the live betting if you can see something in the fight happening, like when you can visually see a narrative play out in the fight that you couldn’t see in the build up to the fight.
Ultimately never bet more than you can afford to lose as well, but anyway that’s it for today guys I hope you have enjoyed this post so drop some feedback below and stay tuned for more from the world of MMA right here at the MMAGateway.
Adios te veo pronto!